Home prices up again in December, average 62% since crisis

by Steve Randall28 Feb 2018

The upward trend of US home prices continued through to the end of 2017 with a further year-over-year gain in December.

The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index covering all 9 census areas was up 6.3% year-over-year, up from 6.1% in November. The 10-city composite was up 6% (the same as November), while the 20-city composite gained 6.4% (6.3% in November).

The data shows that the national index has risen 38% in the last 6 years (since the low of 2012) with a real annual increase of 5.3%.

“The National Index's average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"Across the 20 cities covered by S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62%; over the same period, inflation was 12.4%,” he added.

Seattle (12.7%), Las Vegas (11.1%), and San Francisco (9.2%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.

None of the cities covered in the latest figures saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017.

Monthly gains
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.2%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.6% month-over-month increases.

Twelve of the 20 cities reported increases in December before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

Are things beginning to change?
Mr Blitzer says that there are signs that things are leveling off in the market with existing and new home sales easing.

“While the price increases do not suggest any weakening of demand, mortgage rates rose from 4% to 4.4% since the start of the year. It is too early to tell if the housing recovery is slowing. If it is, some moderation in price gains could be seen later this year," he says.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

 

Index

 

Level

 

Date

 

Level

 

Date

From Peak (%)

 

Level

From Trough (%)

From Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

196.23

46.4%

6.3%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

204.45

52.5%

-1.0%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

218.41

49.1%

-3.5%

 


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